Costalegre Jalisco Mexico

Joint Forces Warns of Mexico Collapse
January 14, 2009
El Paso Times

EL PASO, Texas -- Mexico is one of two countries that "bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse," according to a report by the U.S. Joint Forces Command on worldwide security threats.

The command's "Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008)" report, which contains projections of global threats and potential next wars, puts Pakistan on the same level as Mexico. "In terms of worse-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico.

"The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and pressure by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent

by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone."

The Joint Forces Command in Norfolk, Va., is a Defense Department combat command that includes different military service branches, active and reserves. One of its roles is to transform the military's capabilities.

In the report's foreword, Marine Gen. J.N. Mattis, the Joint Forces commander, said "Predictions about the future are always risky. ... Regardless, if we do not

try to forecast the future, there is no doubt that we will be caught off guard as we strive to protect this experiment in democracy that we call America."

The report offers "a Polaroid snapshot," and conditions in Mexico and elsewhere are in a state of flux, said Brig. Gen. Jose Riojas, executive director of the National Center for Border Security and Immigration at the University of Texas at El Paso. "I'm not sure Mexico looks today like it did nine months ago," Riojas said.

The report is the latest focusing on Mexico's security problems, which stem mostly from drug violence and corruption. Recently, the Department of Homeland Security and former U.S. drug czar Barry McCaffrey issued similar assessments.

Despite such reports, El Pasoan Veronica Callaghan, a border business leader, said she keeps running into people who "are in denial about what is happening in Mexico."

Last week, Mexican President Felipe Calderon Hinojosa instructed his embassy and consular officials to promote a positive image of Mexico. He's also vowed to continue the crackdown on drug cartels.

Diana Washington Valdez may be reached at dvaldez@elpasotimes.com; 546-6140.

and so you are saying ???

No more trips to México?
You are returning to Seattle?
All the greenhouse labor fellas are headin' home?

What is the hidden message?

Maybe this " The report offers "a Polaroid snapshot," " should be this The report offers "a Paranoid snapshot,"

Interesting article Scott.

Almost every message board or Yahoo Group has re-posted this and thankfully the responses are diverse. Certainly a worst case scenario, possibly by people that don't know Mexico that well ... and maybe the military is just looking for more funding with the Administration change

Scott ...

Even talking about a trip to México with friends, from Nanaimo, San Diego and Boise ... there is the question: is it safe now?

As you say, it is tough to know just how bad things are across a country as big as México.; what is happening in PV may not even be on the agenda in Veracruz and be totally not important in Chihuahua. I can't tell you how many folks from México that I've talked with about places in their homeland only to have them say, "gee you know more about my homeland than I do". I get from that that they don't travel much from state to state.

What the theme is in the articles I've briefed is that the federal governmental/political situation is teetering mostly because of all the drug related issues. A recent news article said that Atlanta, Georgia is the drug distribution center for the SE USA. Of course the Homeland Security folks are getting very involved.

Just as the US troops move across the Pakistan borders 'in hot pursuit' of Al-Quaida ... how far away can a US troop movement deep into México be?

There are some folks in the US who say "The South Will Rise Again"; the Confederate States are in resurrection mode.
Some folks from México say "México will reclaim lost parts"; the States pre-Gadsden Purchase are in return mode.

Your thoughts? Is there any talk anywhere about México being at a very important historical fork-in-the-road?

That's above and beyond any conversations I get into. Only concerns are the economy and drug problems. Think the US would have to go thru some major changes before Mexico

Here is the link to the article in La Tornado; http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2009/01/18/index.php?section=politica&article=007n2pol.

It looks very similar to the type of argument that has been used by US officials for the reasons we've entered Korea, Viet Nam, Kuwait, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. The argument is that the country is so unstable it causes a potential for a group of terrorists/communist/anit-American Interest in the region to come into power.

In México it appears (check the article) that a determination has been made that the drug wars are at a level so intense, that the US will be 'forced' into México to provide stability. The article uses the Spanish word 'estadunidense' ... which I think means nation stability/security/sovereignty.

So I think I see what may be (already) what you say " the US would have to go thru some major changes before ". This year if Caulderon doesn't get a handle on the drug wars don't be surprised to see him "ask for US assistance" by creating a new and improved joint US-México agency/effort to stop the drug lords and return the stability of both nations. Remember, the US has already gone through this with the Columbian government and their battle with drug 'dudes' in Bogota.

I don't doubt at all that dealing with crime on the border will be a joint operation at one point but don't consider that an invasion

I read this article (it hit the Reuter wire on 1/15) http://uk.reuters.com/article/usTopNews/idUKTRE50E7E220090115?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0.

The interesting bits from where I sit is the reference to the Sinaloa federation and to the Merida area out on the Yucatan. Mazatlan in the state of Sinaloa is a huge Expat area and all of the Yucatan crawls with turistas from all over the world; the largest percent of whom are Americans.

The article is full of statements that indicate because of the corruption in the Méxican drug agencies, the US will be forced to handle the situation. Again, although the word 'invasion' is strong, it none-the-less could be used to describe how US agents will/could be in México.

What will be very interesting to see is how will the response be from folks in México ... if/when US entry happens.

Anyway ... I'll do my following.

Well if the US comes raging in with bayonets drawn they are in for a big surprise. This is a real underground here that needs to infiltrated. I don't think the US is up to it. They better stick with the fence idea

Very good point. This will be of special interest to watch unfold.

Thanks for your comments/thoughts.